Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
