Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
